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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200203-200205

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Optimal Climate Normal Precip 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
0
2
1
1
0
2

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
33
18
12
63
1
1
0
2
34
19
12
65

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
50
50
0
100
50
50
0
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
51
28
18
97
2
2
0
3
52
29
18
100

hitrate: 0.000 hitrate: 0.277
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.00 --
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 3.32 0.17
Heidke skill score: -0.500 Heidke skill score: -0.085
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: -0.017
Kuipers skill score: -0.500 Kuipers skill score: -0.085
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: -0.020
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.000 0.281 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.009 -0.027
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.947 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.714 1.000
samples: 2 out of 65 samples: 65 out of 65
%coverage: 3.08 %coverage: 100.00