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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200204-200206

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Optimal Climate Normal Precip 8.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
0
1
0
1
2
0
0
2
3
1
0
4

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
28
16
19
63
2
0
0
2
31
16
19
66

% contingency table
fcst
obs
25
0
0
25
0
25
0
25
50
0
0
50
75
25
0
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
0
2
42
24
29
95
3
0
0
3
47
24
29
100

hitrate: 0.500 hitrate: 0.258
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.33 1.00 --
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.03 3.94 0.11
Heidke skill score: 0.250 Heidke skill score: -0.114
true Heidke skill score: 0.333 true Heidke skill score: 0.014
Kuipers skill score: 0.250 Kuipers skill score: -0.114
true Kuipers skill score: 0.667 true Kuipers skill score: 0.016
threat score:
0.333 1.000 0.000
threat score:
0.032 0.254 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.111 1.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.017 0.015 -0.028
probability of detection:
0.333 1.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.032 1.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.746 1.000
samples: 4 out of 66 samples: 66 out of 66
%coverage: 6.06 %coverage: 100.00