CPC Banner
 

CPC Verifications

Forecast 200205-200207

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Optimal Climate Normal Precip 5.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
1
2
0
1
3
3
0
1
4

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
32
17
14
63
2
0
1
3
34
17
15
66

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
25
0
0
25
50
0
25
75
75
0
25
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
48
26
21
95
3
0
2
5
52
26
23
100

hitrate: 0.250 hitrate: 0.273
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 -- 3.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 3.71 0.20
Heidke skill score: -0.125 Heidke skill score: -0.091
true Heidke skill score: 0.077 true Heidke skill score: 0.022
Kuipers skill score: -0.125 Kuipers skill score: -0.091
true Kuipers skill score: 0.167 true Kuipers skill score: 0.027
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.333
threat score:
0.000 0.270 0.059
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.111
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.017 0.019
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 1.000 0.067
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 1.000 0.667
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.730 0.667
samples: 4 out of 66 samples: 66 out of 66
%coverage: 6.06 %coverage: 100.00