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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200207-200209

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Optimal Climate Normal Precip 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
4
1
0
5
0
0
0
0
1
0
1
2
5
1
1
7

contingency table
fcst
obs
4
1
0
5
27
21
11
59
1
0
1
2
32
22
12
66

% contingency table
fcst
obs
57
14
0
71
0
0
0
0
14
0
14
29
71
14
14
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
6
2
0
8
41
32
17
89
2
0
2
3
48
33
18
100

hitrate: 0.714 hitrate: 0.394
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.00 0.00 2.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.16 2.68 0.17
Heidke skill score: 0.571 Heidke skill score: 0.091
true Heidke skill score: 0.364 true Heidke skill score: 0.081
Kuipers skill score: 0.571 Kuipers skill score: 0.091
true Kuipers skill score: 0.364 true Kuipers skill score: 0.087
threat score:
0.667 0.000 0.500
threat score:
0.121 0.350 0.077
equitable threat score:
0.176 0.000 0.417
equitable threat score:
0.052 0.033 0.050
probability of detection:
0.800 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.125 0.955 0.083
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.200 0.000 0.500
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.200 0.644 0.500
samples: 7 out of 66 samples: 66 out of 66
%coverage: 10.61 %coverage: 100.00