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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200208-200210

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Optimal Climate Normal Precip 5.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
0
1
2
2
0
4
1
0
1
2
3
3
1
7

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
0
1
18
26
18
62
1
0
1
2
19
27
19
65

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
14
0
14
29
29
0
57
14
0
14
29
43
43
14
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
0
2
28
40
28
95
2
0
2
3
29
42
29
100

hitrate: 0.429 hitrate: 0.415
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.33 1.33 2.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.05 2.30 0.11
Heidke skill score: 0.143 Heidke skill score: 0.123
true Heidke skill score: 0.125 true Heidke skill score: 0.010
Kuipers skill score: 0.143 Kuipers skill score: 0.123
true Kuipers skill score: 0.133 true Kuipers skill score: 0.009
threat score:
0.000 0.400 0.500
threat score:
0.000 0.413 0.050
equitable threat score:
-0.120 0.087 0.417
equitable threat score:
-0.015 0.007 0.021
probability of detection:
0.000 0.667 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.963 0.053
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.500 0.500
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.581 0.500
samples: 7 out of 65 samples: 65 out of 65
%coverage: 10.77 %coverage: 100.00