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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200209-200211

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Optimal Climate Normal Precip 8.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
1
1
3
3
2
8
2
1
1
4
5
4
4
13

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
1
1
20
19
21
60
2
1
1
4
22
20
23
65

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
8
8
23
23
15
62
15
8
8
31
38
31
31
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
2
2
31
29
32
92
3
2
2
6
34
31
35
100

hitrate: 0.308 hitrate: 0.308
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.20 2.00 1.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.05 3.00 0.17
Heidke skill score: -0.038 Heidke skill score: -0.038
true Heidke skill score: -0.009 true Heidke skill score: -0.005
Kuipers skill score: -0.038 Kuipers skill score: -0.038
true Kuipers skill score: -0.009 true Kuipers skill score: -0.005
threat score:
0.000 0.333 0.143
threat score:
0.000 0.311 0.038
equitable threat score:
-0.068 0.082 -0.040
equitable threat score:
-0.015 0.013 -0.017
probability of detection:
0.000 0.750 0.250
probability of detection:
0.000 0.950 0.043
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.625 0.750
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.683 0.750
samples: 13 out of 65 samples: 65 out of 65
%coverage: 20.00 %coverage: 100.00