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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200212-200302

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Optimal Climate Normal Precip 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
3
0
4
0
0
0
0
2
0
1
3
3
3
1
7

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
3
0
4
23
21
13
57
2
0
1
3
26
24
14
64

% contingency table
fcst
obs
14
43
0
57
0
0
0
0
29
0
14
43
43
43
14
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
5
0
6
36
33
20
89
3
0
2
5
41
38
22
100

hitrate: 0.286 hitrate: 0.359
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.33 0.00 3.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.15 2.38 0.21
Heidke skill score: -0.071 Heidke skill score: 0.039
true Heidke skill score: -0.029 true Heidke skill score: -0.016
Kuipers skill score: -0.071 Kuipers skill score: 0.039
true Kuipers skill score: -0.033 true Kuipers skill score: -0.016
threat score:
0.167 0.000 0.333
threat score:
0.034 0.350 0.062
equitable threat score:
-0.167 0.000 0.222
equitable threat score:
-0.023 -0.010 0.022
probability of detection:
0.333 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.038 0.875 0.071
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.750 0.000 0.667
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.750 0.632 0.667
samples: 7 out of 64 samples: 64 out of 64
%coverage: 10.94 %coverage: 100.00