CPC Banner
 

CPC Verifications

Forecast 200301-200303

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Optimal Climate Normal Precip 9.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
1
2
0
1
0
1
2
0
0
2
2
2
1
5

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
1
2
34
18
9
61
2
0
0
2
36
19
10
65

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
20
20
40
0
20
0
20
40
0
0
40
40
40
20
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
2
3
52
28
14
94
3
0
0
3
55
29
15
100

hitrate: 0.200 hitrate: 0.277
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.00 0.50 2.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.06 3.21 0.20
Heidke skill score: -0.200 Heidke skill score: -0.085
true Heidke skill score: -0.176 true Heidke skill score: -0.027
Kuipers skill score: -0.200 Kuipers skill score: -0.085
true Kuipers skill score: -0.188 true Kuipers skill score: -0.033
threat score:
0.000 0.500 0.000
threat score:
0.000 0.290 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.250 0.375 -0.154
equitable threat score:
-0.030 0.004 -0.026
probability of detection:
0.000 0.500 0.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.947 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.000 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.705 1.000
samples: 5 out of 65 samples: 65 out of 65
%coverage: 7.69 %coverage: 100.00