CPC Banner
 

CPC Verifications

Forecast 199504-199506

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Optimal Climate Normal Temp 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
2
3
1
1
1
3
5
10
3
18
7
11
6
24

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
2
3
17
8
10
35
5
10
3
18
23
18
15
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
4
0
8
13
4
4
4
13
21
42
13
75
29
46
25
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
4
5
30
14
18
63
9
18
5
32
41
32
27
100

hitrate: 0.208 hitrate: 0.214
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.43 0.27 3.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.13 1.94 1.20
Heidke skill score: -0.188 Heidke skill score: -0.179
true Heidke skill score: -0.101 true Heidke skill score: -0.137
Kuipers skill score: -0.188 Kuipers skill score: -0.179
true Kuipers skill score: -0.114 true Kuipers skill score: -0.144
threat score:
0.111 0.077 0.143
threat score:
0.040 0.178 0.100
equitable threat score:
0.015 -0.032 -0.091
equitable threat score:
-0.010 -0.096 -0.072
probability of detection:
0.143 0.091 0.500
probability of detection:
0.043 0.444 0.200
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.667 0.667 0.833
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.667 0.771 0.833
samples: 24 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 42.86 %coverage: 100.00