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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199505-199507

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Optimal Climate Normal Temp 4.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
0
1
1
1
1
3
3
6
12
21
4
8
13
25

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
0
1
15
8
11
34
3
6
12
21
18
15
23
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
4
0
4
4
4
4
12
12
24
48
84
16
32
52
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
0
2
27
14
20
61
5
11
21
38
32
27
41
100

hitrate: 0.520 hitrate: 0.357
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.25 0.38 1.62
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.06 2.27 0.91
Heidke skill score: 0.280 Heidke skill score: 0.036
true Heidke skill score: 0.074 true Heidke skill score: 0.051
Kuipers skill score: 0.280 Kuipers skill score: 0.036
true Kuipers skill score: 0.064 true Kuipers skill score: 0.053
threat score:
0.000 0.100 0.545
threat score:
0.000 0.195 0.375
equitable threat score:
-0.033 0.004 0.097
equitable threat score:
-0.017 -0.035 0.144
probability of detection:
0.000 0.125 0.923
probability of detection:
0.000 0.533 0.522
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.667 0.429
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.765 0.429
samples: 25 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 44.64 %coverage: 100.00