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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199506-199508

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Optimal Climate Normal Temp 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
5
8
14
1
5
8
14

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
12
8
22
42
1
5
8
14
13
13
30
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
7
36
57
100
7
36
57
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
21
14
39
75
2
9
14
25
23
23
54
100

hitrate: 0.571 hitrate: 0.286
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.00 1.75
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 3.23 0.47
Heidke skill score: 0.357 Heidke skill score: -0.071
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: -0.032
Kuipers skill score: 0.357 Kuipers skill score: -0.071
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: -0.037
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.571
threat score:
0.000 0.170 0.222
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.047 0.018
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.615 0.267
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.429
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.810 0.429
samples: 14 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 25.00 %coverage: 100.00