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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199510-199512

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Optimal Climate Normal Temp 6.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
2
0
1
1
2

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
18
16
20
54
0
1
1
2
18
17
21
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
50
50
100
0
50
50
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
32
29
36
96
0
2
2
4
32
30
38
100

hitrate: 0.500 hitrate: 0.304
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 0.00 2.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 3.18 0.10
Heidke skill score: 0.250 Heidke skill score: -0.045
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: -0.004
Kuipers skill score: 0.250 Kuipers skill score: -0.045
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: -0.004
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.500
threat score:
0.000 0.291 0.045
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.010 0.012
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.941 0.048
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.500
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.704 0.500
samples: 2 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 3.57 %coverage: 100.00