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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199511-199601

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Optimal Climate Normal Temp 5.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
2
0
4
2
2
0
4

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
21
9
22
52
2
2
0
4
23
11
22
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
50
50
0
100
50
50
0
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
38
16
39
93
4
4
0
7
41
20
39
100

hitrate: 0.000 hitrate: 0.161
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.00 --
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 4.73 0.18
Heidke skill score: -0.500 Heidke skill score: -0.259
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: -0.063
Kuipers skill score: -0.500 Kuipers skill score: -0.259
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: -0.078
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.000 0.167 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.028 -0.064
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.818 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.827 1.000
samples: 4 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 7.14 %coverage: 100.00