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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199601-199603

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Optimal Climate Normal Temp 4.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
12
16
8
36
12
16
8
36

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
6
10
4
20
12
16
8
36
18
26
12
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
33
44
22
100
33
44
22
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
11
18
7
36
21
29
14
64
32
46
21
100

hitrate: 0.222 hitrate: 0.321
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.00 4.50
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.77 3.00
Heidke skill score: -0.167 Heidke skill score: -0.018
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.026
Kuipers skill score: -0.167 Kuipers skill score: -0.018
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: 0.028
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.222
threat score:
0.000 0.278 0.200
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.027 0.009
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.385 0.667
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.778
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.500 0.778
samples: 36 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 64.29 %coverage: 100.00