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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199607-199609

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Optimal Climate Normal Temp 6.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
7
2
0
9
3
3
0
6
2
6
4
12
12
11
4
27

contingency table
fcst
obs
7
2
0
9
11
12
12
35
2
6
4
12
20
20
16
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
26
7
0
33
11
11
0
22
7
22
15
44
44
41
15
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
13
4
0
16
20
21
21
63
4
11
7
21
36
36
29
100

hitrate: 0.519 hitrate: 0.411
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.75 0.55 3.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.45 1.75 0.75
Heidke skill score: 0.278 Heidke skill score: 0.116
true Heidke skill score: 0.308 true Heidke skill score: 0.105
Kuipers skill score: 0.278 Kuipers skill score: 0.116
true Kuipers skill score: 0.348 true Kuipers skill score: 0.104
threat score:
0.500 0.214 0.333
threat score:
0.318 0.279 0.167
equitable threat score:
0.300 0.048 0.217
equitable threat score:
0.202 -0.016 0.028
probability of detection:
0.583 0.273 1.000
probability of detection:
0.350 0.600 0.250
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.222 0.500 0.667
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.222 0.657 0.667
samples: 27 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 48.21 %coverage: 100.00