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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199608-199610

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Optimal Climate Normal Temp 9.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
7
7
5
19
5
5
0
10
0
0
3
3
12
12
8
32

contingency table
fcst
obs
7
7
5
19
11
16
7
34
0
0
3
3
18
23
15
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
22
22
16
59
16
16
0
31
0
0
9
9
38
38
25
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
13
13
9
34
20
29
13
61
0
0
5
5
32
41
27
100

hitrate: 0.469 hitrate: 0.464
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.58 0.83 0.38
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.06 1.48 0.20
Heidke skill score: 0.203 Heidke skill score: 0.196
true Heidke skill score: 0.166 true Heidke skill score: 0.146
Kuipers skill score: 0.203 Kuipers skill score: 0.196
true Kuipers skill score: 0.161 true Kuipers skill score: 0.139
threat score:
0.292 0.294 0.375
threat score:
0.233 0.390 0.200
equitable threat score:
-0.007 0.094 0.310
equitable threat score:
0.037 0.075 0.155
probability of detection:
0.583 0.417 0.375
probability of detection:
0.389 0.696 0.200
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.632 0.500 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.632 0.529 0.000
samples: 32 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 57.14 %coverage: 100.00