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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199610-199612

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Optimal Climate Normal Temp 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
5
3
0
8
2
1
2
5
0
0
1
1
7
4
3
14

contingency table
fcst
obs
5
3
0
8
14
16
17
47
0
0
1
1
19
19
18
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
36
21
0
57
14
7
14
36
0
0
7
7
50
29
21
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
9
5
0
14
25
29
30
84
0
0
2
2
34
34
32
100

hitrate: 0.500 hitrate: 0.393
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.14 1.25 0.33
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.42 2.47 0.06
Heidke skill score: 0.250 Heidke skill score: 0.089
true Heidke skill score: 0.162 true Heidke skill score: 0.082
Kuipers skill score: 0.250 Kuipers skill score: 0.089
true Kuipers skill score: 0.156 true Kuipers skill score: 0.081
threat score:
0.500 0.125 0.333
threat score:
0.227 0.320 0.056
equitable threat score:
0.167 -0.065 0.282
equitable threat score:
0.119 0.002 0.038
probability of detection:
0.714 0.250 0.333
probability of detection:
0.263 0.842 0.056
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.375 0.800 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.375 0.660 0.000
samples: 14 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 25.00 %coverage: 100.00