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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199612-199702

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Optimal Climate Normal Temp 4.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
7
16
23
0
7
16
23

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
4
10
19
33
0
7
16
23
4
17
35
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
30
70
100
0
30
70
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
7
18
34
59
0
13
29
41
7
30
63
100

hitrate: 0.696 hitrate: 0.464
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 0.00 1.44
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 1.94 0.66
Heidke skill score: 0.543 Heidke skill score: 0.196
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.051
Kuipers skill score: 0.543 Kuipers skill score: 0.196
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: 0.056
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.696
threat score:
0.000 0.250 0.381
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.001 0.059
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.588 0.457
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.304
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.697 0.304
samples: 23 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 41.07 %coverage: 100.00