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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199702-199704

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Optimal Climate Normal Temp 9.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
2
5
4
16
25
5
5
17
27

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
3
19
9
31
5
4
16
25
8
23
25
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
4
4
7
19
15
59
93
19
19
63
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
5
34
16
55
9
7
29
45
14
41
45
100

hitrate: 0.630 hitrate: 0.625
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.40 1.47
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 1.35 1.00
Heidke skill score: 0.444 Heidke skill score: 0.438
true Heidke skill score: 0.082 true Heidke skill score: 0.346
Kuipers skill score: 0.444 Kuipers skill score: 0.438
true Kuipers skill score: 0.062 true Kuipers skill score: 0.324
threat score:
0.000 0.167 0.615
threat score:
0.000 0.543 0.471
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.112 0.025
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.281 0.212
probability of detection:
0.000 0.200 0.941
probability of detection:
0.000 0.826 0.640
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.500 0.360
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.387 0.360
samples: 27 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 48.21 %coverage: 100.00