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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199703-199705

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Optimal Climate Normal Temp 10.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
0
1
2
1
1
4
8
5
10
23
10
7
11
28

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
0
1
22
5
5
32
8
5
10
23
30
11
15
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
4
0
4
7
4
4
14
29
18
36
82
36
25
39
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
0
2
39
9
9
57
14
9
18
41
54
20
27
100

hitrate: 0.393 hitrate: 0.268
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.10 0.57 2.09
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.03 2.91 1.53
Heidke skill score: 0.089 Heidke skill score: -0.098
true Heidke skill score: 0.034 true Heidke skill score: 0.047
Kuipers skill score: 0.089 Kuipers skill score: -0.098
true Kuipers skill score: 0.033 true Kuipers skill score: 0.060
threat score:
0.000 0.100 0.417
threat score:
0.000 0.132 0.357
equitable threat score:
-0.034 0.000 0.064
equitable threat score:
-0.018 -0.041 0.176
probability of detection:
0.000 0.143 0.909
probability of detection:
0.000 0.455 0.667
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.750 0.565
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.844 0.565
samples: 28 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 50.00 %coverage: 100.00