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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199705-199707

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Optimal Climate Normal Temp 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
2
0
4
1
0
0
1
14
3
5
22
17
5
5
27

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
2
0
4
13
9
8
30
14
3
5
22
29
14
13
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
7
7
0
15
4
0
0
4
52
11
19
81
63
19
19
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
4
4
0
7
23
16
14
54
25
5
9
39
52
25
23
100

hitrate: 0.259 hitrate: 0.286
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.24 0.20 4.40
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.14 2.14 1.69
Heidke skill score: -0.111 Heidke skill score: -0.071
true Heidke skill score: 0.011 true Heidke skill score: 0.032
Kuipers skill score: -0.111 Kuipers skill score: -0.071
true Kuipers skill score: 0.015 true Kuipers skill score: 0.038
threat score:
0.105 0.000 0.227
threat score:
0.065 0.257 0.167
equitable threat score:
-0.031 -0.032 0.052
equitable threat score:
-0.002 0.055 -0.004
probability of detection:
0.118 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.069 0.643 0.385
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 1.000 0.773
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.700 0.773
samples: 27 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 48.21 %coverage: 100.00