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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199706-199708

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Optimal Climate Normal Temp 4.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
2
0
5
1
2
0
3
9
8
5
22
13
12
5
30

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
2
0
5
13
12
4
29
9
8
5
22
25
22
9
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
10
7
0
17
3
7
0
10
30
27
17
73
43
40
17
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
5
4
0
9
23
21
7
52
16
14
9
39
45
39
16
100

hitrate: 0.333 hitrate: 0.357
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.38 0.25 4.40
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.20 1.32 2.44
Heidke skill score: 0.000 Heidke skill score: 0.036
true Heidke skill score: 0.129 true Heidke skill score: 0.073
Kuipers skill score: 0.000 Kuipers skill score: 0.036
true Kuipers skill score: 0.158 true Kuipers skill score: 0.082
threat score:
0.200 0.154 0.227
threat score:
0.111 0.308 0.192
equitable threat score:
0.065 0.068 0.073
equitable threat score:
0.031 0.022 0.065
probability of detection:
0.231 0.167 1.000
probability of detection:
0.120 0.545 0.556
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.400 0.333 0.773
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.400 0.586 0.773
samples: 30 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 53.57 %coverage: 100.00