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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199707-199709

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Optimal Climate Normal Temp 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
4
4
1
9
3
5
0
8
2
4
4
10
9
13
5
27

contingency table
fcst
obs
4
4
1
9
4
17
16
37
2
4
4
10
10
25
21
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
15
15
4
33
11
19
0
30
7
15
15
37
33
48
19
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
7
7
2
16
7
30
29
66
4
7
7
18
18
45
38
100

hitrate: 0.481 hitrate: 0.446
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.00 0.62 2.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.90 1.48 0.48
Heidke skill score: 0.222 Heidke skill score: 0.170
true Heidke skill score: 0.235 true Heidke skill score: 0.092
Kuipers skill score: 0.222 Kuipers skill score: 0.170
true Kuipers skill score: 0.256 true Kuipers skill score: 0.089
threat score:
0.286 0.312 0.364
threat score:
0.267 0.378 0.148
equitable threat score:
0.091 0.095 0.235
equitable threat score:
0.179 0.017 0.011
probability of detection:
0.444 0.385 0.800
probability of detection:
0.400 0.680 0.190
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.556 0.375 0.600
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.556 0.541 0.600
samples: 27 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 48.21 %coverage: 100.00