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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199710-199712

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Optimal Climate Normal Temp 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
4
2
2
8
2
0
1
3
1
2
0
3
7
4
3
14

contingency table
fcst
obs
4
2
2
8
16
15
14
45
1
2
0
3
21
19
16
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
29
14
14
57
14
0
7
21
7
14
0
21
50
29
21
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
7
4
4
14
29
27
25
80
2
4
0
5
38
34
29
100

hitrate: 0.286 hitrate: 0.339
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.14 0.75 1.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.38 2.37 0.19
Heidke skill score: -0.071 Heidke skill score: 0.009
true Heidke skill score: -0.176 true Heidke skill score: -0.003
Kuipers skill score: -0.071 Kuipers skill score: 0.009
true Kuipers skill score: -0.172 true Kuipers skill score: -0.003
threat score:
0.364 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.160 0.306 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.140 -0.120
equitable threat score:
0.045 -0.008 -0.047
probability of detection:
0.571 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.190 0.789 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 1.000 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.667 1.000
samples: 14 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 25.00 %coverage: 100.00