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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199801-199803

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Optimal Climate Normal Temp 9.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
4
19
23
0
4
19
23

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
8
25
33
0
4
19
23
0
12
44
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
17
83
100
0
17
83
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
14
45
59
0
7
34
41
0
21
79
100

hitrate: 0.826 hitrate: 0.482
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 0.00 1.21
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 2.75 0.52
Heidke skill score: 0.739 Heidke skill score: 0.223
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.060
Kuipers skill score: 0.739 Kuipers skill score: 0.223
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: 0.098
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.826
threat score:
0.000 0.216 0.396
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.031 0.031
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.667 0.432
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.174
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.758 0.174
samples: 23 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 41.07 %coverage: 100.00