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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199804-199806

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Optimal Climate Normal Temp 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
10
11
0
0
2
2
3
3
4
10
3
4
16
23

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
10
11
10
5
20
35
3
3
4
10
13
9
34
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
4
43
48
0
0
9
9
13
13
17
43
13
17
70
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
18
20
18
9
36
63
5
5
7
18
23
16
61
100

hitrate: 0.174 hitrate: 0.161
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
3.67 0.50 0.62
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.85 3.89 0.29
Heidke skill score: -0.239 Heidke skill score: -0.259
true Heidke skill score: -0.332 true Heidke skill score: -0.126
Kuipers skill score: -0.239 Kuipers skill score: -0.259
true Kuipers skill score: -0.440 true Kuipers skill score: -0.170
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.182
threat score:
0.000 0.128 0.100
equitable threat score:
-0.114 -0.062 -0.197
equitable threat score:
-0.119 -0.019 -0.061
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.250
probability of detection:
0.000 0.556 0.118
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 1.000 0.600
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.857 0.600
samples: 23 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 41.07 %coverage: 100.00