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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199805-199807

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Optimal Climate Normal Temp 4.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
4
6
0
1
7
8
2
2
10
14
2
5
21
28

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
4
6
5
11
20
36
2
2
10
14
7
15
34
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
7
14
21
0
4
25
29
7
7
36
50
7
18
75
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
4
7
11
9
20
36
64
4
4
18
25
13
27
61
100

hitrate: 0.393 hitrate: 0.375
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
3.00 1.60 0.67
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.86 2.40 0.41
Heidke skill score: 0.089 Heidke skill score: 0.062
true Heidke skill score: -0.087 true Heidke skill score: 0.057
Kuipers skill score: 0.089 Kuipers skill score: 0.062
true Kuipers skill score: -0.121 true Kuipers skill score: 0.069
threat score:
0.000 0.083 0.400
threat score:
0.000 0.275 0.263
equitable threat score:
-0.057 -0.041 -0.034
equitable threat score:
-0.061 0.045 0.051
probability of detection:
0.000 0.200 0.476
probability of detection:
0.000 0.733 0.294
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.875 0.286
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.694 0.286
samples: 28 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 50.00 %coverage: 100.00