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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199807-199809

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Optimal Climate Normal Temp 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
1
1
0
0
6
6
0
0
2
2
0
0
9
9

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
1
1
0
3
49
52
0
0
2
2
0
3
52
55

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
11
11
0
0
67
67
0
0
22
22
0
0
100
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
2
2
0
5
89
95
0
0
4
4
0
5
95
100

hitrate: 0.222 hitrate: 0.091
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- -- 0.22
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 17.33 0.04
Heidke skill score: -0.167 Heidke skill score: -0.364
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.005
Kuipers skill score: -0.167 Kuipers skill score: -0.364
true Kuipers skill score: nan true Kuipers skill score: 0.048
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.222
threat score:
0.000 0.058 0.038
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.003 0.002
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.222
probability of detection:
0.000 1.000 0.038
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 1.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.942 0.000
samples: 9 out of 55 samples: 55 out of 55
%coverage: 16.36 %coverage: 100.00