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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199810-199812

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Optimal Climate Normal Temp 6.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
7
8
0
1
3
4
0
0
1
1
0
2
11
13

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
7
8
4
10
33
47
0
0
1
1
4
11
41
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
8
54
62
0
8
23
31
0
0
8
8
0
15
85
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
13
14
7
18
59
84
0
0
2
2
7
20
73
100

hitrate: 0.154 hitrate: 0.196
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 2.00 0.09
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.00 4.27 0.02
Heidke skill score: -0.269 Heidke skill score: -0.205
true Heidke skill score: 0.047 true Heidke skill score: 0.010
Kuipers skill score: -0.269 Kuipers skill score: -0.205
true Kuipers skill score: 0.159 true Kuipers skill score: 0.020
threat score:
0.000 0.200 0.091
threat score:
0.000 0.208 0.024
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.088 0.015
equitable threat score:
-0.050 0.020 0.007
probability of detection:
0.000 0.500 0.091
probability of detection:
0.000 0.909 0.024
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.750 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.787 0.000
samples: 13 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 23.21 %coverage: 100.00