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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199903-199905

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Optimal Climate Normal Temp 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
10
6
2
18
10
6
2
18

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
7
23
16
46
10
6
2
18
17
29
18
64

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
56
33
11
100
56
33
11
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
11
36
25
72
16
9
3
28
27
45
28
100

hitrate: 0.111 hitrate: 0.391
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.00 9.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 1.59 1.00
Heidke skill score: -0.333 Heidke skill score: 0.086
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: -0.024
Kuipers skill score: -0.333 Kuipers skill score: 0.086
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: -0.022
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.111
threat score:
0.000 0.442 0.059
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.069 -0.106
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.793 0.111
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.889
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.500 0.889
samples: 18 out of 64 samples: 64 out of 64
%coverage: 28.12 %coverage: 100.00