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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199908-199910

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Optimal Climate Normal Temp 5.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
1
3
2
6
3
11
2
4
7
13
4
12
11
27

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
1
3
11
26
11
48
2
4
7
13
13
32
19
64

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
7
4
11
7
22
11
41
7
15
26
48
15
44
41
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
3
2
5
17
41
17
75
3
6
11
20
20
50
30
100

hitrate: 0.481 hitrate: 0.516
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.75 0.92 1.18
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.23 1.50 0.68
Heidke skill score: 0.222 Heidke skill score: 0.273
true Heidke skill score: 0.145 true Heidke skill score: 0.128
Kuipers skill score: 0.222 Kuipers skill score: 0.273
true Kuipers skill score: 0.143 true Kuipers skill score: 0.114
threat score:
0.000 0.353 0.412
threat score:
0.000 0.481 0.280
equitable threat score:
-0.068 0.092 0.146
equitable threat score:
-0.040 0.067 0.149
probability of detection:
0.000 0.500 0.636
probability of detection:
0.000 0.812 0.368
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.455 0.462
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.458 0.462
samples: 27 out of 64 samples: 64 out of 64
%coverage: 42.19 %coverage: 100.00