CPC Banner
 

CPC Verifications

Forecast 200008-200010

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Optimal Climate Normal Temp 5.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
1
4
17
22
1
6
8
15
2
10
25
37

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
6
18
27
51
1
6
8
15
7
24
35
66

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
3
11
46
59
3
16
22
41
5
27
68
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
9
27
41
77
2
9
12
23
11
36
53
100

hitrate: 0.324 hitrate: 0.394
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.20 0.60
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.12 0.43
Heidke skill score: -0.014 Heidke skill score: 0.091
true Heidke skill score: -0.195 true Heidke skill score: -0.013
Kuipers skill score: -0.014 Kuipers skill score: 0.091
true Kuipers skill score: -0.236 true Kuipers skill score: -0.013
threat score:
0.000 0.143 0.250
threat score:
0.000 0.316 0.190
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.088 -0.098
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.014 0.001
probability of detection:
0.000 0.400 0.320
probability of detection:
0.000 0.750 0.229
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.818 0.467
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.647 0.467
samples: 37 out of 66 samples: 66 out of 66
%coverage: 56.06 %coverage: 100.00