CPC Banner
 

CPC Verifications

Forecast 200009-200011

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Optimal Climate Normal Temp 6.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
1
2
3
0
5
3
3
0
6

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
28
27
6
61
2
3
0
5
30
30
6
66

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
17
0
0
17
33
50
0
83
50
50
0
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
42
41
9
92
3
5
0
8
45
45
9
100

hitrate: 0.000 hitrate: 0.409
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.33 --
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.03 0.83
Heidke skill score: -0.500 Heidke skill score: 0.114
true Heidke skill score: -0.091 true Heidke skill score: -0.031
Kuipers skill score: -0.500 Kuipers skill score: 0.114
true Kuipers skill score: -0.167 true Kuipers skill score: -0.031
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.000 0.422 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.143 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.020 -0.043
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.900 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 1.000 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.557 1.000
samples: 6 out of 66 samples: 66 out of 66
%coverage: 9.09 %coverage: 100.00