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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200010-200012

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Optimal Climate Normal Temp 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
1
1
1
0
2
2
1
0
3

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
60
6
0
66
1
1
0
2
61
7
0
68

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
33
0
0
33
33
33
0
67
67
33
0
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
88
9
0
97
1
1
0
3
90
10
0
100

hitrate: 0.000 hitrate: 0.088
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 1.00 --
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 9.43 --
Heidke skill score: -0.500 Heidke skill score: -0.368
true Heidke skill score: -0.125 true Heidke skill score: -0.013
Kuipers skill score: -0.500 Kuipers skill score: -0.368
true Kuipers skill score: -0.250 true Kuipers skill score: -0.063
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.000 0.090 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.200 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.013 0.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.857 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 1.000 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.909 1.000
samples: 3 out of 68 samples: 68 out of 68
%coverage: 4.41 %coverage: 100.00