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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200011-200101

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Optimal Climate Normal Temp 4.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
6
2
0
8
6
2
0
8

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
47
11
2
60
6
2
0
8
53
13
2
68

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
75
25
0
100
75
25
0
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
69
16
3
88
9
3
0
12
78
19
3
100

hitrate: 0.000 hitrate: 0.162
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.00 --
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 4.62 4.00
Heidke skill score: -0.500 Heidke skill score: -0.257
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: -0.013
Kuipers skill score: -0.500 Kuipers skill score: -0.257
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: -0.029
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.000 0.177 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.009 -0.024
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.846 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.817 1.000
samples: 8 out of 68 samples: 68 out of 68
%coverage: 11.76 %coverage: 100.00