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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200012-200102

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Optimal Climate Normal Temp 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
23
16
1
40
23
16
1
40

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
13
11
4
28
23
16
1
40
36
27
5
68

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
58
40
3
100
58
40
3
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
19
16
6
41
34
24
1
59
53
40
7
100

hitrate: 0.025 hitrate: 0.176
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.00 40.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 1.04 8.00
Heidke skill score: -0.463 Heidke skill score: -0.235
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: -0.038
Kuipers skill score: -0.463 Kuipers skill score: -0.235
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: -0.054
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.025
threat score:
0.000 0.250 0.023
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.004 -0.047
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.407 0.200
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.975
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.607 0.975
samples: 40 out of 68 samples: 68 out of 68
%coverage: 58.82 %coverage: 100.00