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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200101-200103

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Optimal Climate Normal Temp 9.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
3
19
11
33
3
19
11
33

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
6
22
5
33
3
19
11
33
9
41
16
66

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
9
58
33
100
9
58
33
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
9
33
8
50
5
29
17
50
14
62
24
100

hitrate: 0.333 hitrate: 0.500
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.00 3.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.80 2.06
Heidke skill score: 0.000 Heidke skill score: 0.250
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.120
Kuipers skill score: 0.000 Kuipers skill score: 0.250
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: 0.127
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.333
threat score:
0.000 0.423 0.289
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.048 0.100
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.537 0.688
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.667
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.333 0.667
samples: 33 out of 66 samples: 66 out of 66
%coverage: 50.00 %coverage: 100.00