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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200104-200106

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Optimal Climate Normal Temp 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
5
4
9
2
4
9
15
2
9
13
24

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
1
12
39
52
2
4
9
15
3
16
48
67

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
21
17
38
8
17
38
63
8
38
54
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
1
18
58
78
3
6
13
22
4
24
72
100

hitrate: 0.583 hitrate: 0.313
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 1.00 1.15
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 3.25 0.31
Heidke skill score: 0.375 Heidke skill score: -0.030
true Heidke skill score: 0.200 true Heidke skill score: -0.049
Kuipers skill score: 0.375 Kuipers skill score: -0.030
true Kuipers skill score: 0.186 true Kuipers skill score: -0.076
threat score:
0.000 0.385 0.474
threat score:
0.000 0.214 0.167
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.169 0.080
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.010 -0.040
probability of detection:
0.000 0.556 0.692
probability of detection:
0.000 0.750 0.188
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.444 0.400
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.769 0.400
samples: 24 out of 67 samples: 67 out of 67
%coverage: 35.82 %coverage: 100.00