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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200105-200107

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Optimal Climate Normal Temp 4.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
6
9
7
22
6
9
7
22

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
2
14
29
45
6
9
7
22
8
23
36
67

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
27
41
32
100
27
41
32
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
3
21
43
67
9
13
10
33
12
34
54
100

hitrate: 0.318 hitrate: 0.313
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.00 3.14
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 1.96 0.61
Heidke skill score: -0.023 Heidke skill score: -0.030
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: -0.158
Kuipers skill score: -0.023 Kuipers skill score: -0.030
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: -0.162
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.318
threat score:
0.000 0.259 0.137
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.038 -0.123
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.609 0.194
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.682
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.689 0.682
samples: 22 out of 67 samples: 67 out of 67
%coverage: 32.84 %coverage: 100.00