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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200106-200108

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Optimal Climate Normal Temp 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
3
3
0
2
4
6
7
11
10
28
7
13
17
37

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
3
3
2
9
25
36
7
11
10
28
9
20
38
67

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
8
8
0
5
11
16
19
30
27
76
19
35
46
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
4
4
3
13
37
54
10
16
15
42
13
30
57
100

hitrate: 0.324 hitrate: 0.284
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.43 0.46 1.65
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.33 1.80 0.74
Heidke skill score: -0.014 Heidke skill score: -0.075
true Heidke skill score: -0.165 true Heidke skill score: -0.201
Kuipers skill score: -0.014 Kuipers skill score: -0.075
true Kuipers skill score: -0.152 true Kuipers skill score: -0.210
threat score:
0.000 0.118 0.286
threat score:
0.000 0.191 0.179
equitable threat score:
-0.060 -0.007 -0.129
equitable threat score:
-0.035 -0.048 -0.147
probability of detection:
0.000 0.154 0.588
probability of detection:
0.000 0.450 0.263
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.667 0.643
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.750 0.643
samples: 37 out of 67 samples: 67 out of 67
%coverage: 55.22 %coverage: 100.00