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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200107-200109

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Optimal Climate Normal Temp 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
3
3
2
5
4
11
6
7
6
19
8
12
13
33

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
3
3
6
13
26
45
6
7
6
19
12
20
35
67

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
9
9
6
15
12
33
18
21
18
58
24
36
39
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
4
4
9
19
39
67
9
10
9
28
18
30
52
100

hitrate: 0.333 hitrate: 0.284
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.38 0.92 1.46
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.25 2.25 0.54
Heidke skill score: 0.000 Heidke skill score: -0.075
true Heidke skill score: -0.058 true Heidke skill score: -0.114
Kuipers skill score: 0.000 Kuipers skill score: -0.075
true Kuipers skill score: -0.056 true Kuipers skill score: -0.121
threat score:
0.000 0.278 0.231
threat score:
0.000 0.250 0.125
equitable threat score:
-0.071 0.071 -0.080
equitable threat score:
-0.037 -0.011 -0.103
probability of detection:
0.000 0.417 0.462
probability of detection:
0.000 0.650 0.171
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.545 0.684
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.711 0.684
samples: 33 out of 67 samples: 67 out of 67
%coverage: 49.25 %coverage: 100.00