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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200108-200110

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Optimal Climate Normal Temp 4.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
8
8
6
22
5
2
8
15
13
10
14
37

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
10
17
25
52
5
2
8
15
15
19
33
67

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
22
22
16
59
14
5
22
41
35
27
38
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
15
25
37
78
7
3
12
22
22
28
49
100

hitrate: 0.432 hitrate: 0.373
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.20 1.07
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.74 0.45
Heidke skill score: 0.149 Heidke skill score: 0.060
true Heidke skill score: 0.173 true Heidke skill score: 0.064
Kuipers skill score: 0.149 Kuipers skill score: 0.060
true Kuipers skill score: 0.179 true Kuipers skill score: 0.068
threat score:
0.000 0.333 0.381
threat score:
0.000 0.315 0.200
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.114 0.152
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.057 0.019
probability of detection:
0.000 0.800 0.571
probability of detection:
0.000 0.895 0.242
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.636 0.467
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.673 0.467
samples: 37 out of 67 samples: 67 out of 67
%coverage: 55.22 %coverage: 100.00