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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200110-200112

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Optimal Climate Normal Temp 6.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
1
0
0
1
1
0
1
1
2

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
1
7
58
66
0
0
1
1
1
7
59
67

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
50
0
50
0
0
50
50
0
50
50
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
1
10
87
99
0
0
1
1
1
10
88
100

hitrate: 1.000 hitrate: 0.119
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 1.00 1.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 9.43 0.02
Heidke skill score: 1.000 Heidke skill score: -0.321
true Heidke skill score: 1.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.004
Kuipers skill score: 1.000 Kuipers skill score: -0.321
true Kuipers skill score: 1.000 true Kuipers skill score: 0.016
threat score:
0.000 1.000 1.000
threat score:
0.000 0.106 0.017
equitable threat score:
0.000 1.000 1.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.002 0.002
probability of detection:
0.000 1.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 1.000 0.017
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.894 0.000
samples: 2 out of 67 samples: 67 out of 67
%coverage: 2.99 %coverage: 100.00