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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200111-200201

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Optimal Climate Normal Temp 5.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
0
0
2
2
0
0
3
3

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
1
3
61
65
0
0
2
2
1
3
63
67

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
33
33
0
0
67
67
0
0
100
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
1
4
91
97
0
0
3
3
1
4
94
100

hitrate: 0.667 hitrate: 0.075
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- -- 0.67
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 21.67 0.03
Heidke skill score: 0.500 Heidke skill score: -0.388
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.003
Kuipers skill score: 0.500 Kuipers skill score: -0.388
true Kuipers skill score: nan true Kuipers skill score: 0.027
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.667
threat score:
0.000 0.046 0.032
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.001 0.002
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.667
probability of detection:
0.000 1.000 0.032
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 1.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.954 0.000
samples: 3 out of 67 samples: 67 out of 67
%coverage: 4.48 %coverage: 100.00