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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200202-200204

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Optimal Climate Normal Temp 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
3
0
0
3
9
11
7
27
12
11
7
30

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
7
22
10
39
9
11
7
27
16
33
17
66

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
10
0
0
10
30
37
23
90
40
37
23
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
11
33
15
59
14
17
11
41
24
50
26
100

hitrate: 0.233 hitrate: 0.439
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.27 3.86
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 1.18 1.59
Heidke skill score: -0.150 Heidke skill score: 0.159
true Heidke skill score: -0.018 true Heidke skill score: 0.064
Kuipers skill score: -0.150 Kuipers skill score: 0.159
true Kuipers skill score: -0.020 true Kuipers skill score: 0.062
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.259
threat score:
0.000 0.440 0.189
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.085 0.034
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.082 0.002
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.667 0.412
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 1.000 0.741
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.436 0.741
samples: 30 out of 66 samples: 66 out of 66
%coverage: 45.45 %coverage: 100.00