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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200203-200205

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Optimal Climate Normal Temp 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
4
0
0
4
8
6
5
19
12
6
5
23

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
17
19
11
47
8
6
5
19
25
25
16
66

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
17
0
0
17
35
26
22
83
52
26
22
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
26
29
17
71
12
9
8
29
38
38
24
100

hitrate: 0.217 hitrate: 0.364
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.67 3.80
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 1.88 1.19
Heidke skill score: -0.174 Heidke skill score: 0.045
true Heidke skill score: -0.010 true Heidke skill score: 0.036
Kuipers skill score: -0.174 Kuipers skill score: 0.045
true Kuipers skill score: -0.012 true Kuipers skill score: 0.037
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.263
threat score:
0.000 0.358 0.167
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.117 0.058
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.034 0.016
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.760 0.312
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 1.000 0.737
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.596 0.737
samples: 23 out of 66 samples: 66 out of 66
%coverage: 34.85 %coverage: 100.00