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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200204-200206

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Optimal Climate Normal Temp 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
1
1
0
3
7
10
5
2
7
14
5
5
15
25

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
1
1
9
19
24
52
5
2
7
14
14
21
32
67

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
4
4
0
12
28
40
20
8
28
56
20
20
60
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
1
1
13
28
36
78
7
3
10
21
21
31
48
100

hitrate: 0.400 hitrate: 0.388
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.20 2.00 0.93
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.07 2.48 0.44
Heidke skill score: 0.100 Heidke skill score: 0.082
true Heidke skill score: -0.042 true Heidke skill score: 0.064
Kuipers skill score: 0.100 Kuipers skill score: 0.082
true Kuipers skill score: -0.043 true Kuipers skill score: 0.066
threat score:
0.000 0.250 0.318
threat score:
0.000 0.352 0.179
equitable threat score:
-0.034 0.100 -0.103
equitable threat score:
-0.014 0.072 0.010
probability of detection:
0.000 0.600 0.467
probability of detection:
0.000 0.905 0.219
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.700 0.500
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.635 0.500
samples: 25 out of 67 samples: 67 out of 67
%coverage: 37.31 %coverage: 100.00