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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200204-200206

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Optimal Climate Normal Temp 10.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
1
3
6
10
4
3
7
14
5
6
13
24

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
7
19
27
53
4
3
7
14
11
22
34
67

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
4
13
25
42
17
13
29
58
21
25
54
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
10
28
40
79
6
4
10
21
16
33
51
100

hitrate: 0.417 hitrate: 0.388
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 1.67 1.08
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.41 0.41
Heidke skill score: 0.125 Heidke skill score: 0.082
true Heidke skill score: -0.006 true Heidke skill score: 0.035
Kuipers skill score: 0.125 Kuipers skill score: 0.082
true Kuipers skill score: -0.006 true Kuipers skill score: 0.037
threat score:
0.000 0.231 0.350
threat score:
0.000 0.339 0.171
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.048 -0.047
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.041 -0.003
probability of detection:
0.000 0.500 0.538
probability of detection:
0.000 0.864 0.206
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.700 0.500
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.642 0.500
samples: 24 out of 67 samples: 67 out of 67
%coverage: 35.82 %coverage: 100.00