CPC Banner
 

CPC Verifications

Forecast 200206-200208

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Optimal Climate Normal Temp 5.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
6
6
5
10
14
29
5
10
20
35

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
1
8
29
38
5
10
14
29
6
18
43
67

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
17
17
14
29
40
83
14
29
57
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
1
12
43
57
7
15
21
43
9
27
64
100

hitrate: 0.400 hitrate: 0.328
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.60 1.45
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.11 0.67
Heidke skill score: 0.100 Heidke skill score: -0.007
true Heidke skill score: -0.256 true Heidke skill score: -0.179
Kuipers skill score: 0.100 Kuipers skill score: -0.007
true Kuipers skill score: -0.214 true Kuipers skill score: -0.200
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.400
threat score:
0.000 0.167 0.241
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.120 -0.140
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.058 -0.117
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.700
probability of detection:
0.000 0.444 0.326
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 1.000 0.517
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.789 0.517
samples: 35 out of 67 samples: 67 out of 67
%coverage: 52.24 %coverage: 100.00