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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200208-200210

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Optimal Climate Normal Temp 9.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
3
6
10
19
5
3
8
16
8
9
18
35

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
18
11
21
50
5
3
8
16
23
14
29
66

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
9
17
29
54
14
9
23
46
23
26
51
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
27
17
32
76
8
5
12
24
35
21
44
100

hitrate: 0.400 hitrate: 0.288
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.11 0.89
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 3.57 0.55
Heidke skill score: 0.100 Heidke skill score: -0.068
true Heidke skill score: 0.040 true Heidke skill score: 0.028
Kuipers skill score: 0.100 Kuipers skill score: -0.068
true Kuipers skill score: 0.041 true Kuipers skill score: 0.032
threat score:
0.000 0.273 0.308
threat score:
0.000 0.208 0.216
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.065 -0.013
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.009 0.032
probability of detection:
0.000 0.667 0.444
probability of detection:
0.000 0.786 0.276
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.684 0.500
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.780 0.500
samples: 35 out of 66 samples: 66 out of 66
%coverage: 53.03 %coverage: 100.00